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Quarterly Compass Update
The Amundi Pioneer Compass is a quarterly update on the direction of the markets. It offers comprehensive coverage of the markets including global context, our outlook, and trends.
Other news
04/08/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
The late-cycle environment continues to play out
Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral rate has moved higher.
04/05/2024
Investment Talks
Bonds Take Center Stage
For most of the last year, savers have been earning a reasonable return in cash. But how long can these compelling cash rates last? Historically, the answer has been: not very long. In every rate hike cycle since the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve has “paused at the peak” federal funds rate for a matter of months, not years, and history suggests the rate cuts could begin soon. With history as a guide, we believe investors may benefit from locking in some of today’s historically elevated interest rates by moving out of cash and into short-term bonds.
03/15/2024
Cross Asset
Six questions concerning the weakness behind US resiliency
In January we had some upside surprises, encompassing import prices, producer prices, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator. We think prices were in part boosted by seasonal factors which are not fully accounted for in the usual seasonal adjustment. The weakness in January retail sales and a downward revision of November and December readings signal, in our opinion, a potential downshift in consumer spending. Credit card and auto loan delinquency rates continue to rise according to the New York Fed report; consumption so far has been supported by the depletion of excess savings but US households have also taken on more debt, and some of those loans are becoming delinquent, especially credit card and auto loans, which are now above pre-COVID levels.
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