Global Macro: Outlook to 2020

Tuesday 18 December 2018

Investment Talks

In the world economy, 2018 began based on the theme of a synchronised global recovery. But, this did not last. Since the spring, the protectionist measures taken by Donald Trump have changed the game

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Other news

yellow vests
12/17/2018 Investment Talks

Why investors should care about French "yellow vests" protest

The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services. The protests, in our view, will have a modest negative economic impact on growth, as a consequence of two opposite effects: a fiscal stimulus (with an impact on public deficit) and damage to business and investor confidence. We have just reduced our forecast on French real GDP growth from 1.5% to 1.4% for next year, while the deficit, depending on the measures, could be higher than 3%, before declining in 2020. Read here

Amundi Intermediation, solution d'execution d'ordres
12/03/2018 Investment Talks

From G20: Short-term relief, but it is not the final word on trade disputes

The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.We believe that neither this scenario nor the worst case of no agreement was completely priced in the market, even though markets partially discounted a weak scenario, with some risk of deterioration of China/US relationship and China’s economic slowdown. This, combined with a more dovish Fed, could support a relief rally in the short term. Read here