Insights

23 news articles are available

12/17/2018 Investment Talks

Why investors should care about French "yellow vests" protest

The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services. The protests, in our view, will have a modest negative economic impact on growth, as a consequence of two opposite effects: a fiscal stimulus (with an impact on public deficit) and damage to business and investor confidence. We have just reduced our forecast on French real GDP growth from 1.5% to 1.4% for next year, while the deficit, depending on the measures, could be higher than 3%, before declining in 2020.Read here

12/03/2018 Investment Talks

From G20: Short-term relief, but it is not the final word on trade disputes

The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.We believe that neither this scenario nor the worst case of no agreement was completely priced in the market, even though markets partially discounted a weak scenario, with some risk of deterioration of China/US relationship and China’s economic slowdown. This, combined with a more dovish Fed, could support a relief rally in the short term.Read here

11/26/2018 Market Insights

Brexit: Where do we stand and what should investors expect?

After the EU approval of the Brexit deal, we could pass through some tough time until the UK parliamentary vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of the deal will be very difficult and will likely bring new episodes of market stress. But we think the most likely scenario is that the deal will ultimately be ratified, and the UK economy should experience a slight acceleration in 2019 and 2020.Read here