Insights

18 news articles are available

12/03/2018 Investment Talks

From G20: Short-term relief, but it is not the final word on trade disputes

The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.We believe that neither this scenario nor the worst case of no agreement was completely priced in the market, even though markets partially discounted a weak scenario, with some risk of deterioration of China/US relationship and China’s economic slowdown. This, combined with a more dovish Fed, could support a relief rally in the short term.Read here

11/26/2018 Market Insights

Brexit: Where do we stand and what should investors expect?

After the EU approval of the Brexit deal, we could pass through some tough time until the UK parliamentary vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of the deal will be very difficult and will likely bring new episodes of market stress. But we think the most likely scenario is that the deal will ultimately be ratified, and the UK economy should experience a slight acceleration in 2019 and 2020.Read here

10/09/2018 Market Insights

US Midterm Elections: Potential Economic Agenda and Market Implications

In the upcoming US midterm elections on November 6, there are high expectations of divided Congress, with the Democratic Party taking control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans – or Grand Old Party (GOP) retaining control of the Senate. Other scenarios are possible: the GOP could maintain control of Congress or the Democrats could sweep both the House and the Senate.In this piece, we examine some of the reasons why we believe the most likely election outcome is a divided Congress. We then look at the economic agendas for both parties and potential issues around their implementation. Finally, we analyze possible investment implications on US equities and fixed income markets.Read here